Tijekom sljedećeg stoljeća čak bi milijarda ljudi mogla umrijeti od posljedica klimatskih katastrofa, a i ta je procjena prilično konzervativna. Do tih su potresnih brojki došli istraživači koji su pregledali 180 članaka o stopi smrtnosti ljudi od klimatskih promjena i o svojim izračunima izvijestili u časopisu Energies.
Znanstveni konsenzus
Ovo se predviđanje temelji na nekoliko pretpostavki, a jedna od njih odnosi se na “pravilo 1000 tona” prema kojem svaka tisuća tona ugljika koju čovječanstvo sagori neizravno jednu osobu osuđuje na smrt. A ako svijet dosegne temperature dva Celzijeva stupnja iznad prosječne globalne predindustrijske temperature, što bi nam se lako moglo dogoditi u nadolazećim desetljećima, onda je to mnogo izgubljenih života. Za svaki desetinu Celzijevog stupnja zagrijavanja svijet bi mogao pretrpjeti otprilike 100 milijuna smrti.
WIRESTOCK
“Ako ozbiljno shvatite znanstveni konsenzus o pravilu od 1000 tona i pogledate brojke, antropogeno globalno zatopljenje izjednačava se s milijardom preuranjenih mrtvih tijela tijekom sljedećeg stoljeća”, objašnjava Joshua Pierce, energetičar sa Sveučilišta Western Ontario u Kanadi.
Globalni učinci
Stopu smrtnosti ljudi od klimatskih promjena izuzetno je teško izračunati, čak i u današnje vrijeme. Ujedinjeni narodi izvješćuju da svake godine ekološki čimbenici odnesu živote oko 13 milijuna ljudi, ali nije jasno koliko je tih smrti izravno ili neizravno uzrokovano klimatskim promjenama. Neki stručnjaci tvrde da abnormalne temperature same po sebi odnose čak pet milijuna života godišnje.
Globalni učinci klimatskih promjena su višestruki: propali usjevi, suše, poplave, ekstremni vremenski uvjeti, šumski požari i porast razine mora mogu utjecati na ljudske živote na suptilan i složen način, a predviđanje budućeg broja smrtnih slučajeva ovih klimatskih katastrofa nezahvalan posao. No Pierce i koautor studije Richard Parncutt sa Sveučilišta u Grazu misle da je vrijedno truda.
Australski mega rudnik
Pierce i Parncutt primijenili su pravilo od 1000 tona na australski rudnik ugljena Adani Carmichael koji će postati najveći rudnik ugljena u povijesti. Spaljivanje svih rezervi ovog rudnika moglo bi, izračunali su autori, uzrokovati preuranjenu smrt oko tri milijuna ljudi. A mnoge od tih budućih žrtava trenutno su djeca koja žive na globalnom jugu.
Tehnički gledano, pravilo od 1000 tona ne uzima u obzir moguće petlje klimatskih povratnih informacija koje bi buduće posljedice emisija ugljika mogle učiniti još gorima, čak i bržima.
Konzervativna procjena
Ovo je pravilo zapravo “najbolja procjena reda veličine”, što znači da je to više raspon, negdje između 0,1 do 10 smrtnih slučajeva na 1000 tona izgorjelog ugljika. A to ostavlja puno prostora za scenarije još strašnije od ovog ovdje opisanog.
CDP
“Kad klimatski znanstvenici pokrenu svoje modele i onda o njima izvješćuju, svi naginju prema konzervativnosti, jer nitko ne želi zvučati kao doktor Doom”, objašnjava Pierce dajući do znanja da je i ova njihova procjena takva, prilično konzervativna, iako ni ona ne izgleda nimalo dobro.
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Izvor:Bug.hr
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